by TOL, Transitions Online (TOL)
Prague, Czech Republic, Monday, April 26, 2004

The electoral commission announced that Nuser won by 17,414 votes, to 12,282 for Baloha.

Opposition observers said the scale of vote-rigging was unprecedented in Ukraine's recent history. Police guards appeared either helpless or conniving in the face of attacks, they alleged, watching disinterestedly as troublemakers trashed polling booths and beat up members of parliament.

Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) witnessed an attack on a polling station. Referring to the events in the town on voting day, the organization said, "This brazen attempt to disrupt the election process is an attack on the fundamentals of democracy."

Many observers were surprised that an opposition candidate was actually allowed to run for mayor in Mukacheve, a town that has become a symbolic battleground between the president's camp and the opposition. Although the USDPU claims to be strong in Transcarpathia, Our Ukraine is very popular there.

In the past the government has eliminated strong opposition candidates by striking their names from the ballot at the last minute on a legal technicality. Baloha escaped this fate, even though in early April all 10 members of the election commission--made up entirely of government supporters--succumbed to a mysterious illness that prevented them from including the front-runner's name on the ballot papers for several days.

Despite a few reported attempts to stuff ballot boxes on polling day, the vote seemed to be going fairly smoothly. Our Ukraine's strategy of posting two parliamentary deputies as observers at all 30-odd polling stations seemed to succeed in preventing any major violations.

But as it became clear from exit polls and turnout figures that Baloha was winning by a landslide, trouble broke out. A report by a parliamentary commission sent the following day to investigate the debacle spoke of violent attacks by groups of underworld types on polling stations.

Opposition supporters said the attackers had been brought to Mukacheve from across Ukraine and given a free hand by the authorities in an attempt to muddy the waters ahead of the final act of vote-rigging.

Our Ukraine said official voting records it had obtained proved that Baloha won in every polling station. Our Ukraine's leader, Viktor Yushchenko, said that Baloha received more than 19,000 votes, 5,500 more than his opponent, RFE/RL reported.

Deputy speaker of parliament Oleksandr Zinchenko, who chaired the investigation commission, told the parliament that the electoral arithmetic employed in Mukacheve was invented by Stalin in the 1930s. "It doesn't matter how the people vote," Zinchenko said. "The final outcome has already been decided."

The actual ballot papers disappeared on the night of 20 April, making a recount impossible. According to Our Ukraine, the papers vanished from electoral headquarters after extra police officers posted at the behest of deputies to prevent just such an occurrence were recalled to their stations.

'NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT'

As the scandal unfolded, Kuchma instructed Prosecutor-General Hennadiy Vasylyev and the Ukrainian Security Service to investigate possible irregularities in the election, and opposition deputies sponsored a petition asking Kuchma to sack presidential administration head Viktor Medvedchuk, Interior Minister Mykola Bilokon, and Transcarpathian Oblast Governor Ivan Rizak over the election fiasco. The parliament voted down the petition on 21 April.

As head of the presidential office, Medvedchuk is one of the most powerful figures in Ukraine. He also heads the USDPU party. The opposition accuses him of orchestrating Nuser's victory.

Security service chief Ihor Smeshko told the parliament on 20 April that the situation in Mukacheve was a "threat to national security." He did not specify the nature of the threat. Interior Minister Bilokon told parliament that rather than police beating up members of parliament, it was four deputies trying to gain access to the Mukacheve electoral headquarters who had assaulted riot police.

KUCHMA'S MUKACHEVE CARD

The blatant exercise of state power in Mukacheve came less than two weeks after Kuchma suffered an unexpected blow when his supporters in parliament were unable to muster the necessary majority to pass a constitutional reform bill. Kuchma's next move may be to seek a third term as president himself, or, if the bill can be pushed through, leave office and try to seek the premiership, a post that would be substantially strengthened by the reform legislation.

In the eyes of the West, Kuchma's and Ukraine's democratic credentials have been further sullied by the events in Mukacheve. The Americans and Europeans issued harsh statements, pushing diplomatic language to the limits. The U.S. Embassy in Kiev spoke of a "manifestly fraudulent manipulation of the voting results."

"The forces that blatantly violated laws in Mukacheve have chosen an unacceptable path," visiting Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende said on 19 April, according to the Our Ukraine press service.

Reaction from Kiev's large eastern neighbor, however, was notably absent. Kuchma had a cordial meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Yalta on 23 April, when the two discussed an upcoming summit of leaders of the four "Single Economic Area" countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan). After heaping praise on the coming economic partnership with Russia, Kuchma pointedly warned the European Union that Ukraine will not wait forever for a membership offer.

After the events in Mukacheve, that offer looks even less likely than ever, at least as long as Kuchma stays in power.